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49% chance of winning the championship? Five aspects illustrate that it is still too early for Liverpool to talk about competing for the championship.

49% chance of winning the championship? Five aspects explain that it is still too early for Liverpool to talk about competing for the championship. Mourinho said in an interview that Liverpool has a 49% chance of winning the Premier League championship this season. So is it really possible for Liverpool to win the Premier League title this season? The Athlete

Mourinho previously said in an interview that Liverpool has a 49% chance of winning the Premier League title this season. So is it really possible for Liverpool to win the Premier League title this season? The Athletic writers James Pearce, Gregg Evans and others analyzed the article.

If you want to predict Liverpool’s Premier League prospects this season, maybe you can look at their situation last season. Inspire. In the 17th round of the Premier League last season, Klopp’s team lost 1-3 to Brentford, and the state they showed has already made people feel that qualifying for the European war at the end of the season is already enough for Liverpool. It was a good result – after all, they were 16 points behind Arsenal, who were at the top of the Premier League.

So, what will be different for Liverpool this season? In the 17th round of the Premier League this season, Liverpool drew 0-0 with Manchester United at home. Although this result will make Red Army fans a little disappointed, their current position in the league standings will indeed make people feel that they are relatively Last season, amazing progress has been made.

Currently, Klopp’s team is ranked second in the Premier League, and if they can play against the Premier League this weekend, If they win, there is still a chance of returning to the top of the league by Christmas.

And the obvious improvement shown by Liverpool this season will also make some Red Army fans start talking: The team Is it possible to win the Premier League title again? But how likely is this? The author of this article communicated with many Liverpool insiders and conducted some data analysis to try to find this answer.

What is the atmosphere of the team?

At the beginning of the 2023/2024 season, Liverpool’s primary goal this season is to regain qualifications for the Champions League.

Liverpool only finished fifth in the Premier League last season – 22 points behind the championship team – so at the beginning of this season, no one would even talk about Liverpool’s title challenge. After all, most people It seems that after a turbulent summer transfer period, the future is uncertain. Henderson, Fabinho, Milner, Naby Keita, Oxlade-Chamberlain and Firmino have all left the team, while the Saudi football team The team’s favor for Salah seems to have distracted the Pharaoh.

At the beginning of the season, Klopp has been shaping the concept of “Liverpool 2.0”. On the one hand, he tells everyone not to have high expectations for this new Liverpool, and also hints to himself that there is no need to bear too much pressure. At the same time, Klopp still maintains his passion and expresses his enthusiasm to this new team. Liverpool painted a “grand blueprint” and told everyone how they will write their own legend in Liverpool over time.

With nearly half of the schedule, people suddenly discovered that Liverpool was not only only 1 point behind the top team Arsenal in the league, but also reached the semi-finals of the League Cup, and the Europa League competition was also progressing smoothly. .

Such a speed of advancement does make Liverpool themselves feel that everything is going more smoothly than they expected, but they are currently competing for the Premier League championship. , is still not something they are prepared to consider.

It is true that Liverpool does not lack ambition, and there is nothing that prohibits discussion of the championship in the dressing room. Ban – Just like in the 2019/2020 season, Henderson and Milner have always worked hard to maintain a good environment in the dressing room to prevent anyone from getting carried away by the topic of the championship.

Currently, by Van Dijk, AhThe dressing room leadership group of Nord, Andrew Robertson, Alisson and Salah have been working hard – now Liverpool is just a team getting started again.

Liverpool’s resilience is definitely a good sign for the challenges ahead. Of the 38 points they have scored so far, 18 are against headwinds Grab points. Moreover, this spirit of “the more you fight, the braver you become” and “never admit defeat” has become the spiritual bond of the entire team. As Klopp recently described it, he and his players “love each other like brothers.” However, Klopp also admitted that the team lacked “consistency”. Salah will join the African national team in January. With other attackers struggling to score goals, the absence of the Egyptian Pharaoh will undoubtedly cause huge problems.

It is true that Manchester City’s recent poor form has reduced Liverpool’s road to the championship. But Arsenal have learned from last season’s mistakes, and Villa and Tottenham’s performances have been equally impressive.

After the draw with Manchester United in the last round of the Premier League, Klopp was asked about the possibility of competing for the title. The coach said : “I don’t know why we are discussing this topic so early.” Of course, he also said that if the team is still in the position it is now in April, then he is happy to discuss the topic of competing for the championship.

For Liverpool now, it is really too early to be excited. After all, Klopp’s Liverpool 2.0 is still a team that still needs to prove itself in many aspects.

What can the data tell us

The emotions are indeed in place, but what can the cold numbers tell us?

Although purely using data to analyze LiverpoolThere are many problems in the possibility of winning the championship. After all, for any team to win the championship, in addition to its own hard power, there are many uncertain factors, but the trend shown by the data can still be used as a measurement standard.

Opta has divided the “average number of points” required for the Premier League title since the 2013/2014 season. Comparing the points and related data that Liverpool may obtain this season, we will find that except for the number of games lost, other data are lower than the “average points”.

The “average standard” of the Premier League champions in the past 10 years and Liverpool’s relevant data predictions for this season

You may say that the surge in points required to win the Premier League in the past few seasons is largely due to the competition between Liverpool and Manchester City. But looking at the 2013/2014 season, you will find that the situation in that season is quite similar to this season.

That season Manchester City finally won the Premier League championship with 86 points, while Liverpool finished second with 84 points. The top four teams in the league this season also have a similar “big fight” situation. No team can be far ahead, so this season the Premier League champion team may not be able to break the 90-point mark. But after adjusting the benchmark, we will find that Liverpool needs at least 85 points to have the possibility of competing for the championship.

Data analysis also tells us that Liverpool’s performance on both offense and defense is not as good as we thought. According to data predictions, Liverpool may score 80 league goals and concede 34 goals this season, which is also lower than the championship average of 89 goals and 31.2 goals conceded. Of course, this is also due to Manchester City’s performance in recent seasons. Strong standards have been greatly improved.

In addition, for the Premier League champion, Liverpool does seem a bit “childish”. After a major overhaul this summer, the average age of Liverpool’s lineup dropped from 27.2 to25.9 years old. According to data from Dezhuan, the average age of Premier League champions over the past 10 seasons is 26.8 years old.

Based on these cold data, the championship competition is very difficult for Liverpool 2.0, which has been developing for less than a year. , it’s still too early—even if they have proven they are good enough in the league this season.

Does Liverpool have enough depth?

During the preseason, the most discussed topic was whether Liverpool had enough depth in the lineup.

Klopp was full of praise for his unknown forwards and young midfield combination. The rise of Kunsa has even made Liverpool feel that they have one less worry in the midfield and backfield positions.

But the injury problem is like a critical hit. Meanwhile, the midfielders looked tired and the attackers struggled to find a way to score. Perhaps Thiago’s return to the battlefield can solve the problem of inexperience in midfielders, but for Liverpool now, what they need more is McAllister, Jota and Andrew Robertson.

If Konate can stay healthy and Matip’s injury problem is not serious, then Liverpool’s current lineup depth actually looks better than Manchester City – – In recent weeks, Guardiola has not only faced the dilemma of having no one to replace, but he has also had to use several untested young players on the bench, and even deployed two backup goalkeepers.

Think about Liverpool’s previous game at the Etihad Stadium. Compared with Guardiola’s lack of personnel adjustments, , Klopp still has the opportunity to make on-the-spot adjustments and try to change the situation.

Tottenham and Newcastle are also plagued by injuries, so Arsenal and Villa, with relatively complete lineups, have become the two teams with the best confidence in the Premier League. . And more and more Premier League professionals feel that Villa has the ability to maintain its championship momentum.

In such a situation Against this background, the next match between Liverpool and Arsenal will become even more interesting.

The next schedule will be more interesting. Who is more advantageous

Although in the 38 rounds of the Premier League, any opponent has two home and away games to play, but some teams’ schedules It is indeed more advantageous.

The difficulty of each game will not be determined until closer to the game – after all, injuries and The status of the players will affect the team’s performance. Although it seems that the game against Bournemouth in March may be a fierce battle, there are still three months to go, and no one knows where Bournemouth will be in these three months. In a few months, how will the status be ups and downs, and whether key players will be troubled by injuries.

Even so, Through data analysis, we can still see certain trends.

Liverpool experienced an extremely difficult away schedule in the first half of this season. This leaves them with only 4 away games to play against the top 10 teams in their subsequent schedule – although these include Arsenal, currently ranked first, and Villa, ranked third. Manchester City faces the top 10 teams in the league The team has only 4 away games, including the away game against Liverpool. As for Villa, they have 5 away games, and Arsenal has 6.

Although in the next game, Liverpool does need to go to Goodison Park to face Everton – This game may be a “banana skin”, but Arsenal have a similar game and they need to travel to Tottenham. As for Manchester City, they will wait for Manchester United to arrive at the Etihad Stadium. Villa There is no such thing as a derby, which may be good news.

Manchester City and Villa still have 6 games to play against the bottom 10 in the league teams, but Liverpool and Arsenal only have 5 games. After all, Manchester City seems to have an easier schedule, followed by Liverpool, then Villa, and the most difficult one seems to be Arsenal.

How is the atmosphere among the fans

As we all know, Liverpool fans are still Waiting for the team to use a stunning performance to prove that they are qualified to compete for the championship.

After the draw against Manchester United, the fans Enthusiasm has dropped a notch,because many still need a more convincing performance from the team to prove that it has enough quality to become a real championship contender.

Of course, Red Army fans still believe that the team has the ability to compete for the championship this season, but every victory needs to give fans a “quick effect” “Heart-saving Pill” is indeed unconvincing.

In the podcast column of The Anfield Wrap last week, host Neil Art Kingson summed up Liverpool’s previous victories in the Premier League well. He said: “We said they have to show they can beat these teams and they can be a knife. ”

Of course, there are many different ways to win the Premier League championship. No one can deny that a comeback victory is not a victory.

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Fan Wayne Earps said: “Although Liverpool can always win, we are no longer just people who watch football. We know that if a team wants to win the championship, it must make victory easier and more Convincing. ”

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