After Paris drew with Dortmund and got the ticket to advance to the knockout rounds of this “death group”, this season’s UEFA Champions League group stage can be regarded as “the end of suspense” ”, all the princes from the top 16 also came to their exclusive positions, which was regarded as a “small victory”. However, this is far from the time to be complacent. The drawing ceremony that begins next is the real “fate-deciding” moment. When encountering a wealthy family and winning a “big gift package” in a lottery, the brightness of the future is very different. Especially the wealthy families and powerful teams who have ideas for the championship are extremely eager to be favored by “good luck”. Looking at the actual status and grouping situation, last season’s runner-up Inter Milan and Paris, led by Mbappe, will be the creators of the X factor. No one among the eight group leaders wants to meet them, “Inter Milan VS Bayern, Paris VS Real Madrid” Such a top-level duel is likely to be forced to take place.
Introduction to the lottery rules: avoidance of the same country and group, the last “classic competition system”
The top 16 teams come from the top two finalists from the eight groups. They are Bayern Munich, Arsenal, Manchester City, Borussia Dortmund, Real Madrid, Barcelona, who won first place in Group A-H. Real Sociedad, Atletico Madrid, and Group A-H second placeLazio, Paris Saint-Germain, Porto, RB Leipzig, Copenhagen, Napoli, Inter Milan, PSV Eindhoven.
Among them, La Liga is the lucky one. They have 4 participating teams that won the first place in the group To qualify, only Sevilla was eliminated and was at the bottom of the group, missing out on the familiar Europa League. Serie A and Bundesliga each have three clubs shortlisted. AC Milan and Union Berlin were unfortunately eliminated. Fortunately, Pioli still has a chance to redeem himself in the Europa League. There are some surprises in the Premier League. Only Manchester City and Arsenal won promotion.level qualification, Manchester United received an excellent lottery draw, but was squeezed out by Copenhagen, causing a huge upset. Newcastle also matched last season’s outstanding performance There was a big difference in performance, and he was eliminated at the bottom.
In addition, Portuguese Super League, Danish Super League, Eredivisie, and French Ligue 1 also have one team each The team advances. It adds rich color to the upcoming competition.
In terms of lottery rules, the specific operation is that the top 16 will be divided into two groups A and B according to the order of first and second. , cross against each other. First place VS second place, the places to advance to the top 8 will be determined based on the home and away results. There is no away goal rule. If the two games cannot be decided, overtime and penalty kicks will be used until the tie is decided. During the draw, teams from the same group and country cannot meet (for example, Bayern will not meet Dortmund, and Dortmund will no longer be able to PK with Paris). This ban will be lifted during thenext round of the draw.
At the same time, this will be the last game based on the “Group stage, 16 into 8, 8 into 4, semi-finals, finals” model It’s the first round of the Champions League. Next year, UEFA’s restructuring will be officially on the table. Although the “Swiss Round”-like competitive model is more attractive to the general audience (more teams and closer matches), it will also be extremely The earth increases the fatigue of team members. It’s hard to say whether it’s a good thing or a bad thing that such a classic group elimination mode is abandoned. For everyone, it’s really a matter of “waiting and cherishing”, who can win the last Champions League championship in the classic mode?It is also of great commemorative value.
Aspect 1: La Liga’s top four attack to show the style of the league
Obviously, after working silently, La Liga finally has the “capital” to counterattack its old rival the Premier League this season. They had 4 teams come to the top 16 competition, and all of them were first in the group, which is indeed an outstanding performance. It should be said that La Liga, which pays more attention to skills, is working hard to create a “new model” of green games according to its familiar game style. This is also a new wave in the football world after the Premier League promoted fast attack and defense transitions. Perhaps, it will also become the new mainstream model of greenery. From tiki-taka to accelerating confrontation, and then returning to the balance of skills, maybe this is “a long time must come together”!
According to the draw rules, Real Madrid, Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid, and Barcelona are definitely not allowed to touch opponents from the same group and country. Therefore, According to the actual situation and big data deduction, the probability of these four teams encountering Leipzig of the Bundesliga is extremely high, far exceeding other situations (20%). In contrast, if you can “hit”, then it is indeed counted as a lottery. You know, the second place in the group includes players like Inter Milan and Paris Saint-Germain. If you can draw a Leipzig, it will be considered a “good luck from heaven”. In addition, the personnel stability of this Bundesliga team is currently being tested. Veteran Forsberg will leave, and midfielder Carvalho may also be recalled. Center Werner is at risk of leaving.
In contrast, Real Madrid and Barcelona certainly have enough advantages over Leipzig. First of all, Real Madrid’s Bellingham and Barcelona’s Lewandowski are their respective The main players are all from the Bundesliga. They are not too unfamiliar with the fighting style of their old opponents. Therefore, they can definitely bring a lot of game information. Secondly, Leipzig is an important choice for the “Championship stepping stone“. They have advanced to the knockout rounds many times, but there is a high probability that they will be eliminated in the first round by strong opponents. Therefore, drawing them will have a great psychological advantage, and it will most likely be an opportunity for the team to find its form and train. In addition, Leipzig’s home court problem is serious. In 8 home league matches, they achieved 6 wins and 2 draws, which was better than Leverkusen, which was in explosive form; however, The results of 4 wins and 3 losses in 7 games in away games are not impressive. The Champions League is a two-round home and away competition, and this problem of theirs will only be targeted when facing giants.
Therefore, Real Madrid and Barcelona’s draw to Leipzig is definitely a good draw. When Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid meet Leipzig, they can also make good arrangements based on this information. In response, the probability of promotion is not small.
After considering the “big gift package”, it is natural to also consider “Extreme situations“, Real Madrid, Barcelona The probability of Atletico Madrid, Inter Milan and Paris Saint-Germain meeting Inter Milan is about 28%, which is almost equal. If they are drawn, it will definitely be an “early final”. No team wants to win so early. It consumes energy. Among them, the big drama of Real Madrid VS Paris must be what many green fans “want to see”. After all, the “grievances and grievances between Mbappe and Galacticos “Fate” is still going on. It would be really interesting if you can meet it.Let’s see who needs whom more; Barcelona VS Paris‘s PK also has historical attributes, after all, “Reversal”, “Messi”, “Neymar”, “Enrique”, etc. Keywords can bring back a lot of memories. Inter Milan VS Atletico Madrid‘s potential matchup is coach Simeone’s “trip home”. As a famous star of the Nerazzurri, he created their own glorious years in Apennines and Inter Milan. If we meet again, it will be a good opportunity to “reminisce about the past”.
Point 2: Serie A’s top three, refuse to be slaughtered
In comparison, Serie A teams are indeed not as “splendid” as La Liga. Although 3 teams advanced to the top 16, they were all ranked second. There is a high probability that you will meet a wealthy and powerful family. According to probability statistics, the probability of Naples meeting a traditional “Emperor Saren” team is 45%, while the probability of Inter Milan and Lazio is a terrifying 60%, which is hard to beat with real numbers.
However, what must be seen is the progress of the Apennine competition. In the past, it was difficult to enter the Champions League, and they were bound to be eliminated in the group stage. Now they have obtained more and more qualifications. When Inter Milan reached the final last season and Milan and Naples also performed well, The return trend is indeed very obvious. This is what people want to see, after all, spring is when a hundred flowers bloom. After all, the Serie A giants were also the focus of the Champions League.
If we consider the historyBased on their historical background and state this season, Naples and Lazio came to the knockout round to compete, which is basically considered a “success”. After all, the disintegration of the team after Spalletti left made Naples very chaotic. The instability of the coach and the absent-mindedness of the general were both proved. This is even more true for Lazio. It is really good to be able to achieve such results after selling the general. . They will have no more “luxury hopes”. Therefore, the situation of which opponent the two teams draw is “similar”, they will not be too anxious, and the supporters will certainly not be angry about not being able to enter the top 8.
According to calculations, among the four Serie A teams participating in the Champions League, Naples has received 67.13 million euros, which is the highest income. Next are Inter Milan with 63.29 million euros, Lazio with 58.53 million euros, and Milan with 46.4 million euros. For the Apennine football team with financial difficulties, this large income is indeed very powerful.
However, Inter Milan still has great ambitions. It is a pity and pain to lose to Manchester City in the Champions League final last season; maintaining the lead in Apennines this season also proves that their lineup is still strong and in excellent condition. Therefore, the “good” and “bad” situation of the draw is of great value to them. The Nerazzurri must want to continue their glory. The Nerazzurri hope that good luck will come, “God bless Meazza”.
Possible opponents for Inter Milan includeBayern Munich (16.54%), Arsenal (13.21%), Real Madrid (13.21%), Atletico Madrid (13.21%), Dortmund (16.54%), Manchester City (14.10%), Barcelona (13.21%). It can be said that there is really no weak opponent among these 7 opponents, and any one of them will be extremely competitive. This is somewhat “disappointing”. After all, if Inter Milan wins Real Sociedad in the last round, it is firmly in the top spot and the actual group draw situation will be very different . Therefore, many fans are still a little dissatisfied with the arrangement of the 90 minutes (Inzaghi was rotated).
Meeting Bayern, Real Madrid, and Manchester City is bound to be an extremely bad result. It is basically an early final. According to the comparison of strength on paper, the Nerazzurri also seem to be at a disadvantage. The “meeting of old friends” against Bayern is quite a story. Everyone is familiar with the good relationship between Inter Milan and Bayern. This summer, Bayern rescued Sommer to Inter Milan, which is proof. The match against Manchester City was a repeat of last season’s decisive battle. Does Inzaghi, who is unconvinced, have a chance to “succeed in revenge”?
If you can meet Atletico Madrid and Dortmund, it is considered a “sign”. It’s not that these two teams are bad, it’s just that It is said that it is considered an “excellent solution” in comparison. Of course, Barcelona, which is in poor form, and Arsenal, which has more young people, may also have opportunities, and Inter Milan has not played against them many times.
Aspect 3: Who will take away the “good luck” of the spree
Copenhagen can squeeze out Manchester United and successfully break through to advance. No one would have thought that their worth in the top 16 is ridiculously low (only 6,000 million euros, which is 1/18 of Manchester City and Arsenal’s. From a utilitarian point of view, they are indeed “unworthy”. However, DenmarkPeople have always believed in fairy tales, and this time they created a new magic.
Although there are no underdogs in the Champions League, Copenhagen’s actual ability is average. Calling it a “big gift package” is not an exaggeration. According to the actual predicted probabilities, Arsenal, Real Madrid, Manchester City, and Barcelona have basically equal probabilities of being drawn. It just depends on who has “more luck”. For Arsenal, this may be an ideal opponent. After all, they have no experience in the Champions League for many years, and the majority of their team is young players. It would be great if they can use Copenhagen to “practice”.
Similarly, Porto and Eindhoven were shining stars compared to the past, but their current brilliance has also dropped several notches. Although the results in the top 16 were good, most of them got the “bonus” of the group (Shakhers, Antwerp, Lens, Sevilla). Therefore, they are also opponents that many giants are eager to meet. Especially PSV, which has a negative goal difference and is still able to advance to the knockout rounds (scoring 8 times and losing 10 points), is also strange. AC Milan and Newcastle can only regret that they were not “divided into good groups”.
Aspect 4: Personal show, the beginning of the competition
The round of 16 is not only a competition between giants, a comparison of glory, but also an excellent proof of the strength of the main players. After Messi and Ronaldo gradually age and leave the main stage of the five major leagues, it is indeed inevitable that newcomers will emerge in large numbers. They will be the future and hope of the green world. Among them, the drama of Mbappe VS Harland seems to have been anticipated by people. The abilities and actual development trajectories of these two brothers have indeed confirmed the predictions.Quite true.
Therefore, after Paris fell into the second tier, many people wanted to see Mbappe VS Harland Mars hit the earth. If Manchester City can draw Paris, then the focus of the game will inevitably be full, which is indeed very attractive to UEFA, which has always been keen on organizing activities. The two brothers had met in the Champions League before (Dortmund VS Paris), but at that time Haaland was not very competitive. This time, it was completely the opposite.
Of course, Bellingham, who bucked the trend, is a topic that is impossible to avoid. Just when people were fiercely comparing who was better, Mbappe or Haaland, Bellingham suddenly appeared, turning the pas de deux into a tripartite tripartite. The drama of Real Madrid VS Paris is not only about the transfer of Mbappe, but also a dialogue between the two “Mr. M“. Although Mbappe and Bellingham have no real interaction, after Bellin stole his “limelight” (this position was originally prepared for him by Real Madrid), Mbappe will definitely be “dissatisfied ”. This set of potential confrontations is bound to be interesting.
In addition, from a purely competitive perspective, Arsenal VS Naples is also expected to be very interesting. The talented PKs of Saka, Martinelli PK Osimhen, and Kvaratshelia will probably elevate the actual excitement of the game to the top. Naples, which is unfavorable in the civil war, is also trying to win the European war tableActing is a chance to vent! Osimhen was in great form last season, but unfortunately he suffered an injury when meeting Milan in the knockout round. This season, he will naturally try his best to express himself.
Of course, non-Inter Milan and Blue Moon supporters will not mindLautaro and Alvarez Let’s have another PK to see who is Argentina’s real No. 9 shooter when Messi gets older.
This season’s knockout rounds will continue the familiar game of catching pairs. Fighting series, but in the next season, after the restructuring starts, the entire green world will come to the “new world”. Therefore, from this perspective alone, it does have good “commemorative value”. The promotion of the four teams in La Liga is a symbol of strength and collective proof. However, the killers Inter Milan and Paris Saint-Germain in the second tier are too difficult to deal with, and they must try their best to avoid them. The two Premier League heroes are eager to be blessed by good luck. After all, the pressure of multi-line combat is very high. Both Arteta and Guardiola are eager to advance with “as little effort as possible”. The three “big gift package” clubs of Copenhagen, Porto and Eindhoven are indeed attractive. For wealthy clubs, if they meet them, they can basically be regarded as half of the promotion, and the difficulty of victory is greatly reduced.